A pilot scheme conducted in spring 2022 revealed that 1.3% of the British population could be categorized as problem gamblers, which is significantly higher than the 0.4% estimate from the Health Survey for England 2018 (HSE 2018).
However, it is important to note that the regulator cautioned against using this new figure as an accurate estimate of problem gambling at this stage, as there may be various reasons unrelated to actual increases in harm.
The pilot scheme survey also identified a higher percentage of respondents at moderate risk and low risk of gambling harm, at 2.3% and 7.8% respectively.
Notably, a larger proportion of the pilot scheme sample were identified as gamblers compared to a random sampling of the population. In the pilot, 63% of respondents gambled, while only 54% did so in the HSE 2018 survey, with the most significant difference observed in online gambling rates.
NatCen social research, the organization responsible for conducting the pilot scheme, highlighted that the disparity cannot be attributed to an actual surge in gambling activity, as such trends would have been captured by the Commission’s quarterly participation surveys.
Instead, the regulator suggested that the discrepancy could be due to the “push-to-web approach” of the survey, which incentivizes offline contact methods to encourage individuals to complete an online questionnaire. This was supplemented by a shorter postal questionnaire to mitigate selection bias towards frequent internet users.
Consequently, the higher presence of gamblers in the sample may be attributed to the fact that gamblers are more likely to engage in a survey focused on gambling. NatCen shared a similar opinion and also raised the possibility that respondents to telephone surveys might be hesitant to report their gambling habits.
In addition, NatCen acknowledged differences in the survey responses provided by some participants. Even after controlling for their level of gambling activity, the pilot survey recorded higher levels of low and moderate risk compared to the HSE 2018. For instance, among HSE 2018 participants who had engaged in just one gambling activity in the past year, 2% had a Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) score of one or more. In the pilot survey, this proportion rose to 8%. Overall, after accounting for gambling activity, the estimated odds of having a PGSI score of 1+ were approximately 2.9 times higher in the pilot survey compared to the HSE 2018.
NatCen discovered that the differences in harm rates and overall gambling levels were most pronounced among younger individuals, particularly women. In contrast, the rates reported among older people were similar in both surveys.
NatCen also added that the higher figures generated by the new survey were not unexpected, as a previous review of a GambleAware/YouGov survey had indicated a tendency to overestimate prevalence.
Despite the higher rates of harm compared to phone surveys, NatCen also noted that they were still lower than those typically obtained from online panel surveys.
In terms of participation rates, NatCen deemed the pilot successful, surpassing response rate expectations. The Commission emphasized the necessity of offering a postal survey completion option in future surveys, given that 40% of respondents chose to submit their answers via mail.
Consequently, the regulator concluded that the pilot survey had been a success and intended to adopt a similar methodology for future surveys after implementing these recommendations.
NatCen made several recommendations for future iterations of the survey, including addressing the bias towards gamblers in the sample by altering invitation letters to focus more on mental health rather than gambling specifically. Additionally, it suggested increasing the sample size to accommodate up to 20,000 respondents, enabling analysis of sub-samples, and shortening the survey to a 20-minute completion time.
