League of Legends is a game of constant change, making it essential for professionals to adapt to patches that weaken or strengthen champions, items, and strategies every few weeks.
At Bayes Esports, we face the same challenges as professional players when creating betting odds. We utilize machine learning to predict the winning side or objective based on the current meta. The accuracy of our predictions depends on reflecting the current meta in our algorithms, which is achieved by using the most recent data available.
Unfortunately, training our models solely on data from yesterday is not feasible due to the limited number of matches played in one day. Similarly, using data from the last five years is not effective either, as factors like champion strength can change with each patch or counter pick discovery.
To find the optimal balance between having enough matches and maintaining relevant data for our models, we conducted a research project based on two-week slices of League of Legends patches. By repeatedly training our model with increasing amounts of patch data and testing it on the most recent matches, we discovered that a model trained on 5,000 games from 21 patches (~10.5 months) produced the most accurate predictions.
It’s important to note that even minor differences in accuracy can significantly impact betting outcomes in the highly competitive esports industry. Additionally, different patches may favor one side over the other, indicating the need for ongoing analysis and adaptation to the evolving meta.
Ultimately, our research has revealed that the optimal timeframe for accurate predictions falls between 6 and 12 months of patch data, with a minimum sample size of around 3,000 games. This aligns with the need to account for the game’s gradual adaptation to patches and the varying significance of each patch in the competitive scene.
Staying connected and aware of changes is crucial for Bayes Esports to maintain its position at the forefront of the esports betting industry. By continuously producing accurate models and odds, we ensure that our customers have the best possible betting experience.
