Despite the federal legalization of sports betting in the US, American sportsbooks are not permitted to accept bets on political events. However, overseas betting platforms allow wagers on various political outcomes, including election winners, party representatives, and even humorous topics like who will wear a red tie during a presidential debate or who will curse first on live television.
An article by Allison M. Prasch and Jason Kido Lopez, published in The Conversation, explains that these political bets, based on the current political context, also reflect people’s opinions on various issues.
What do political bets offer?
Political bets are organized in menus, allowing gamblers to choose their wagers and the amount they want to risk. Each option has odds assigned to it, indicating both the payout for winning bets and their probability.
Options with negative odds are more likely to occur, offering smaller earnings. Conversely, bets with positive odds are less likely to happen but yield higher payouts.
One hot topic at many overseas sportsbooks is Joe Biden’s decision regarding the Trump vs. Biden presidential race—whether he will stay in the race or step aside due to public concerns about his health. The odds for this bet fluctuate constantly. As of July 8, a winning bet that Biden would stand down would bring a $3 payout for every $1 wagered, while a $1 bet that Biden would stay in the race would deliver a payout of $1.33. This indicates that Biden is expected to remain in the race.
Recently, sportsbooks ranked Kamala Harris ahead of Joe Biden in the presidential race, with Donald Trump still leading as the election date approaches.
Political bets reflect public opinion
The Conversation’s study of the 2020 and 2024 elections suggests that political bets are more than just a way for people to profit from politics; they highlight various aspects of the electoral process and reveal public perceptions of elections.
People bet for different reasons and engage with politics at various levels. However, sportsbooks that accept political bets create a “flattened and polar way of understanding the contemporary political moment.”
The odds offered by sportsbooks reflect how candidates embody competing attitudes on several topics, simplifying complex political issues into binary propositions for bettors. This not only makes political betting accessible but also provides a snapshot of public opinion on key political matters.
