Tipsters: How to follow a tipster
To make money in the world of sports betting, we have two ways. Make our own predictions, or follow the so-called “tipsters" or experts in sports betting.
Following tipsters is the most convenient and simple, at Innovate Change we have at your disposal some experts , although there are also people on the net who offer forecasts for all possible sports and countries.
Factors to consider when following a tipster
The first thing we must decide is whether we want it to be free or paid, and this depends on our bank. The ideal is that the subscription of a paid tipster is not greater than our stake unit.
Regarding the number of tipsters that we want to incorporate into our portfolio, it is very relative. It depends on the availability, capital, and means to follow the experts. In our opinion, an ideal portfolio is one made up of between 5 and 10 tipsters.
What should I look at to decide whether to follow him or not?
There are many factors that we need to take into account. The main thing is the history . Both the number of picks that the tipster has registered, and the time he has been forecasting. I think that from 100 forecasts or 6 months is an acceptable figure to generate confidence.
Other key data are statistics. The yield this is the main thing, but we must not forget also the earned units, or stability. The best way to check the stability month by month is through the graphically . An ideal chart is one that is continuously ascending, without ups and downs or very large changes, but stable and ascending as I have said.
Also as we say, we must take into account the means we have available to follow him. There are tipsters who predict sports or markets that only certain bookmakers offer. To do this, just look at your picks file, and check if we have them available in the bookies where we have an account. And if not, we will have to look for what houses those markets offer and create an account.
At Innovate Change we do a detailed analysis of each bookmaker , and we specify which sports and markets each one offers, so we make your job a little easier.
I've already decided who to follow. What unit do I assign to it?
After choosing the tipster or tipsters that will form our portfolio, we must assign a stake unit to each one. That is, the amount of money we will bet on each forecast you send us. As we say at the beginning when we talk about paid and free tipsters, our bank plays a key role. If we choose a paid tipster, the ideal is that our unit is equal to or higher than the cost of your monthly subscription.
If, on the contrary, we choose tipsters FREE, we will be able to manage ourselves with greater flexibility. Our unit will depend on the number of experts that make up our portfolio, and the estimated number of forecasts that we will make each month. It's as simple as checking the average monthly picks of each tipster.
It is not the same to follow 7 tipsters whose average is 50 picks per month (total: 350 picks per month approximately), than to follow 5 whose average is 30 picks per month (total: 150 picks per month). The more picks we make per month, the lower our stake unit should be, since otherwise we will not be able to make all the bets that are sent to us or endure bad streaks.
When determining the amount of money allocated to each unit, our recommendation is that each stake unit does not exceed 1% of the bank, with 0.25% or 0.50% being an ideal percentage to face bad spells without affecting our bank too much.
The tipster goes into a bad dynamic, should I let him?
Streaks are the most common thing in the betting world, and therefore we must get used to them.
All tipsters have bad streaks , since they depend on chance in a fairly high percentage, so it is usual and normal to have a bad streak. For this reason, it's no reason to leave him , as long as he continues to do his job as usual. That is, let's see that you are not affected by losses or bet to recover, or change your working method. If we see that the expert continues to work as usual, regardless of his results, we must trust him.
As I said, in the world of sports betting we rely heavily on chance. But also of the skill or talent. Therefore, chance is responsible for generating the short-term results, but not in the long run .
In the long run, the only thing that counts is talent or ability. Therefore, if we see that the tipster has been many months in a row with bad results, we should consider leaving him before it is too late.
A period of 6 months is acceptable to assess whether the results are the result of chance or talent. So continuous losses for 6 months would be enough reason to remove the tipster from our portfolio.
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